Belmont Stakes 2019 – $500.000 Pick4on

$500.000 Pick4 Guarantee on June 7, 2019 – at

The Races:

  • R8: The Grade II, $250,000 True North for 4yo&up at 6 ½ furlongs
  • R9: – The Grade II, $600,000 New York for 4upfm at 1 ¼ miles (turf)
    R10: The $400,000 Belmont Gold Cup for 4yos&up at 2 miles (turf)
  • R11: 3upfm 40k starter-allowance at 6 furlongs (turf)

The tickets:

Main Ticket: 3 with 8,6 with 3,8,6 with 8,3,11 = $9
R8 B Backup: 4,7 with 8,6 with 3,8,6 with 8,3,11 = $18
R10 B Backup: 3 with 8,6 with 4 with 8,3,11 = $3
R11 B Backup: 3 with 8,6 with 3,8,6 with 2,1 = $6

R8: The Grade II, $250,000 True North for 4yo&up at 6 ½ furlongs

If you’ve followed me in this space in the past you know I’m a big fan of singling a heavy favorite (that I love) in the opening leg of a Pk4 or Pk5 sequence, since the betting public is usually adverse to this move, as they are scared mentally because they don’t want to be out after just one race. The True North was made for this way of thinking, as #3 CATALINA CRUISER (5-2), who I assume will be closer to even-money than his morning line, looks to have this field over a barrel, as he’s not only by far the most talented horse in the race, but he’s full of upside, has been training well, and I find it hard to believe Sadler would ship here off a November layoff if he wasn’t ready to fire his A race. Sure, that absolute no show in the BC Dirt Mile when last seen is a concern, and it’s also the only time he’s been outside of California, but a look at his four wins leading up to that, and you know why he was 9-10 against City of Light.

Pk5 A horses: 3

If the chalk should come up short, then I’ll also use #4 NICODEMUS (8-1), who has a stalking gear in a race loaded with speed and enters off a breakthrough win in the local GIII Westchester, and the hard-knocking #7 WHITMORE (7-2), as he always fires, and therefore should be able to bounce back off a rare meek effort in the GI Churchill Downs last time, over a very speedy track that didn’t suit his running style. If you’re searching for one more then #8 Do Share (5-1) would be logical, as he to was up against it in the Churchill Downs, though it’s also fair to wonder if he’s this kind.

Pk5 B horses: 4,7

R9: – The Grade II, $600,000 New York for 4upfm at 1 ¼ miles (turf)

It’s Chad Brown’s world and we’re all just living in it, so I’m not siding against either #8 HOMERIQUE (6-5) or #6 COMPETITIONOFIDEAS (5-2), who ran 1-2 last time in the local GIII Beaugay and figure to do so again here. The latter could reverse that decision, as the former was more likely to appreciate the shorter trip, but she too was off a long layoff, and might be ready to move forward again in her second US start. ‘Competition won the GI American Oaks at Santa Anita in December in her 2018 finale when she flew home at this trip, so she may bridge the gap, but the gut still says Homerique is a true star in the making and will prove best again.

Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 8,6

No one else here appears in the league of the top-2, and would also need a lifetime best to win, so we’ll just take what the race gives us and move on. If you’re looking outside the box, then #7 Semper Sententiae (8-1) has had solid graded stakes form and is knocking at the door, and #1 Holy Helena (9-2) is a multiple graded stakes winner, but neither looks to have a gear that the Brown gals do, or the upside.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

R10: The $400,000 Belmont Gold Cup for 4yos&up at 2 miles (turf)

This is always a tricky race, as it’s rare an American wants to go this far (against good foreign company) and you don’t know what the Europeans are sending over, so using more than a few seems like the right idea. I’ll take the easy way out and go with #3 AMADE (8-1) and #8 RAA ATOLL (6-1), a pair of marathon-loving Euros who have some solid form and both add Lasix. I can’t possibly believe they’ll hold their morning lines, but this is also the third race in the sequence, so those overlaid prices may scare a few people away, even though Amade has won 5-of-6, with two of them at this trip, and Raa Atoll enters off a GII win going 2 miles at Hoppegarten in his seasonal bow last month, in what was his first start since July. There’s little doubt #6 ARKLOW (5-2) is the best of the Americans, as he just missed in the GI Man O’ War here last time, but this distance is a guess and he’s not usually one for putting big efforts together back-to-back.

Pk5 A horses: 3,8,6

I’m going to toss in #4 RED KNIGHT (7-2) as a backup, since it’s Mott and this guy did win going 2 miles in the Allen Jerkens at Gulfstream Park in December, but he’s really meeting tougher here and has to run better to get unsaddled, and taking this 7-2 ML price would be a huge risk.

Pk5 B horses: 4

R11: 3upfm 40k starter-allowance at 6 furlongs (turf)

First off, no, I don’t know why this isn’t an all-stakes Pk4 starting in R7 with the ultra-tough Tremont for 2yos. Though, this heat came up tough too, and it contains a lot of inside speed, which is why I’m looking for slightly off-the-pace types, who should get all the best of it in the lane. My top pick is #8 QUEEN KAHEN (10-1), an impressive MCL winner from midpack who immediately switches to the dirt off the Rice claim (30%), which is a very confident sign. The horse to beat looks like #3 FUNNY MONEY HONEY (5-2), who was a dreadful 7th on the dirt on debut then freaked when switched to turf after settling early, though facing winners at a short price makes her an underlay. I’ll also include #11 AILISH (8-1), since she drops in class and will be stalking, and going second-off a seven-month layoff says she’s going to be primed here.

Pk5 A horses: 8,3,11

Wiring this won’t be easy, but both #2 LILA RUTH (5-1) and #1 SMOKEN DEB (3-1) have talent for big name connections, so I’m not tossing them completely, though I wouldn’t want to use them on the top line either, since they figure to be dueling with each other throughout.

Pk5 B horses: 2,1

The tickets:

Main Ticket: 3 with 8,6 with 3,8,6 with 8,3,11 = $9
R8 B Backup: 4,7 with 8,6 with 3,8,6 with 8,3,11 = $18
R10 B Backup: 3 with 8,6 with 4 with 8,3,11 = $3
R11 B Backup: 3 with 8,6 with 3,8,6 with 2,1 = $6


Belmont Stakes 2019 – The Horses

Belmont Stakes 2019 - The starters

Live on on Saturday June 8, 2019

War of Will: The Preakness winner rolls into Belmont Park with a head of steam. Fouled in the
Kentucky Derby, the son of War Front redeemed himself with a resounding 1 1/4-length Pimlico score. Out of Visions of Clarity, a daughter of Sadler’s Wells, War of Will seems to be bred to handle the mile and one-half Belmont distance. He’s now won 4 of 10 starts, earned nearly $1.5 million and seems to have regained the form that led to a pair of early Fair Grounds stakes victories.
Tacitus: Similar to War of Will, Tacitus ripped o 3 consecutive wins earlier this season: an
Aqueduct maiden; the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. Placed third in the Kentucky Derby, just 3 1/4-lengths behind Maximum Security, the original winner, Tacitus is trained by Hallof-Fame conditioner Bill Mott—who also trains 2019 Kentucky Derby winner Country House. Tacitus comes from off the pace and will have regular rider Jose Ortiz for
the Belmont.
Everfast: Dismissed at odds of nearly 30-1 in the Preakness Stakes, this son of Take Charge Indy roared home from o the pace to fi nish second. Trainer Dale Romans and owner Calument Farm made Everfast a late edition to the Preakness and the move paid dividends. He has a late-running style that suggests he can handle a mile and one-half. He’s won just one race in 11 starts, but also lists a runner-up e ort at 129-1 in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park.
Spino : Dismissed at 52-1 in the Kentucky Derby, Spino raced wide throughout and defeated just one other horse. Why does trainer Todd Pletcher wheel him back in the Belmont? Good question. Before Louisville, Spinoff had 2 wins, a second and a third from 4 starts with a runner-up try in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and a third in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. With just fi ve starts, the son of Hard Spun could have upside for a trainer who’s won this race 3 times.
Tax: This son of Arch won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct this winter and was second behind Tacitus in the Wood Memorial. He was dispatched at 35-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby and didn’t do much running. Before that, he had been in the money in all 5 career starts with 2 wins and 2 seconds while racing at Churchill, Keeneland and Aqueduct. He was claimed for $50,000 out of his second lifetime start—a winning maiden effort.

Intrepid Heart: He’s the most lightly-raced entrant in the fi eld and his Beyer Speed Figures
continue to improve. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher, a man that knows what level of talent this race demands. In 23 Belmont starts since 2006, Pletcher runners have accounted for 3 wins, 5 seconds and 4 thirds. This son of Tapit has 2 wins in 3 starts with a third in the Peter Pan as his only stakes experience. He stumbled at the start that afternoon, so the e ort should be adjusted accordingly.